Peter Hain - Billy No Mates

Not only has Rhodri Morgan turned his back on him, Peter Hain is today faced with a letter in the Western Mail in which half of the Labour party in Wales pledge their support for rival Harriet Harman.

To top it off, a Plaid - Labour deal looks increasingly likely, a deal that would completely undermine his credibility. After all, this is the man who said Labour would never even seek to accommodate Plaid no matter what the circumstance.

What's the Point of the Lib Dems?

What a bunch of amateurs. Regardless of my own self questioning over rainbow or red-green, what the hell are the Lib Dems up to?

Their only raison d'etre is PR. That would have been delivered for local government had the rainbow gone ahead. They have turned their back on their main aim just to get rid of their Leader - who was desperate for a deal with anyone to save his political skin.

The Lib Dems can drop any claim to being a serious party. You can't fight an election on the basis of getting more influence on the governance of Wales and then talk your way out of two deals that would put you in government.

It looks like a minority Labour Government now, my instincts hope that Red-Green can be put back on the table. Labour will probably stick two fingers up to everyone now in typical sectarian manner. However, Rhodri Morgan should reflect and understand that the draft Red - Green draft document provides a chance for him to deliver real change in Wales before he retires. Again the question is does he have the conviction and the authority within his own group to deliver?

Time for Rhodri to Deliver 2

With Labour on the brink of the political abyss last night, where was Rhodri Morgan? Making a speech to the Athenaeum club in London.

You have to ask how serious Labour are exploring the Red-Green option.

update - Labour have produced a 28 page document according to reports. Have they done enough is the key question.

update 2 - obviously not.

Time for Rhodri to Deliver

I already get the feeling that the Labour leadership in Wales are throwing their toys out of the pram. Instead of accepting their own culpability for the current state of affairs, they are trying to create this impression that the other parties are ganging up on them.

It’s no good for Rhodri Morgan to go running to the BBC to ask that a poll be commissioned to decide who runs Wales. The reality of the situation is that unless he comes up with the goods and produces a deal Plaid can’t turn down, Labour will be in opposition. Playing the victim just won’t wash.

Has Rhodri Got the Authority to Deliver a Deal?

A major development with the Lib Dems braking off all negotiations with Labour. Rhodri Morgan is now on the brink, if he doesn’t form a government he is dead in the water. The question is does he have the power to deliver a deal that would satisfy Plaid demands? If not, it looks like Labour will be in opposition before the end of the month.

For Plaid, politics has always been about the greater good of the country. If the politics of the party was about power then we would already have a rainbow government. The fact that there are still two possible outcomes is testament to the fact that Plaid are still trying to see if they can deliver the best deal for the people of Wales.

The question is does Rhodri have the authority to deliver? It seems that the vultures are circling within his own party, and there is little doubt that certain elements in the Labour party want to force a rainbow coalition to shore up their own position whilst also ‘vindicating’ their disastrous electoral strategy.

Huw Lewis Throws Second Leadership Punch?

Looks like Huw Lewis has got stuck into Rhodri Morgan’s plans today in the Western Mail. Call me a conspiracy theorist but the leak which forms the basis of the story on the procedural part of any agreement with any party and Huw Lewis’ tribalist response, could only have come from someone close to the Penarth nat basher.

What I find most interesting is that Huw seems most upset at any procedural arrangements of any agreement that would give the Libs or Plaid access to information on the policy programme of the Government. Now forgive me for being idealistic, but surely what all concerned should be worried about now is the policy programme for any agreement – procedures can wait for after. It just goes to show how sectarian the Unionist wing of the Labour party has become.

Before the election Plaid announced its starting negotiating position which briefly is:
Green policies to reduce Wales’ carbon footprint
Doubled investment in universal affordable childcare
Lap tops for eleven year olds to create the most IT literate workforce in the world
First Home grants
Help with student debt payments
Business tax cuts including Corporation tax relief in Wales’ Convergence funding areas
Scrap the hospital reconfiguration programme
Cap council tax for pensioners
A new Welsh language Act
A referendum on a proper Parliament
A commission on Wales’ funding arrangements, particularly Barnett reform

Instead of harping on about the politics of power, perhaps Huw can enlighten us on which one of these he is so opposed to. We obviously know he’s against anything progressive such as more powers for Wales, a new language Act and fair funding, but where does he stand on the rest?

My take is that Huw is trying to dethrone Rhodri faster than expected by driving the Labour party into opposition. By creating a riot on procedures he is trying to complicate the situation so much that it is impossible to come to an agreement on a policy programme for the next four years.

This ill judged politicking shows yet again that the Unionist wing of the Labour party don’t care at all about the future of Wales, their only priority is protecting and strengthening their own political positioning.

Rhodri's not having a good election

Apart from being heckled and booed on the two leaders election debates, Rhodri Morgan provided the iconic moment of this years election when he dropped a baby in Carmarthen. Instead of showing some concern for his victim, Rhodri then had a pull of cramp. Now far be it from me to suggest that poor Rhodri decided to feign injury, but I've seen less convincing displays by Cristiano Ronaldo when he gets a last minute penalty for Man Untd.

Sometimes you just have to come to the conclusion that the tide of history is against you.

Huw Lewis Throws First Leadership Punch

Looks like the post Rhodri fight has begun. Huw Lewis on Good Evening Wales just blasted the sources who leaked today’s revelations. Like a demented prize fighter, Huw forgot that we were in the middle of an election and launched a vicious attack on those who he claimed were undermining the Labour party in Wales.

It is clear that the Welsh and Unionist wing of the Labour party in Wales are in a sate of open warfare. The VPGT election strategy devised by unionists such Hain, Andrews and Lewis is deservedly going to lead to a kicking in the polls – any party that creates a lie to win votes deserves no less – and some enlightened Labour politicians and activists have expressed a little bit of disquiet. Personally I’m surprised that they have stayed quiet for so long. A buffoon could have come up with something more inspiring than the ‘Torey bogeyman’ nonsense we have been subjected to from Labour to date. What a damning indictment of a once proud party that seems clearly to have lost all sense of purpose and direction.

Far from trying to bury the story Huw has decided to open fire on his own party members. Although mentioning no names the attack seemed very personal and clearly directed. I’m not surprised he’s so angry, as the strategy of his wing of the party is clearly in tatters.

Even more interestingly when pressed on a possible red – green coalition he refused to rule it out. The contradictions in this whole affair are mindblowing.

By saying he would go in response to a bad result Rhodri Morgan has really brought this on himself. Clearly in the political vacuum created by such a statement suitors for the Labour leadership would position themselves. Looks like open warfare has already commenced.

update - here's the transcript for those of you who missed the niterview

HL: "Well I’ve sounded out the opinions of other Labour Assembly Members and party members today and I can tell you that the mood is unanimously one of great anger towards some cowardly anonymous tipster who is trying to somehow construct a government without reference to the Welsh electorate.
I believe very firmly that we wait until the third of May for the Welsh people to say what kind of assembly we will have. And we will take things from there. It shows a contempt for Rhodri our leader, contempt for our party members and a degree of contempt for the Welsh electorate as well"

Interviewer: It’s not unheard of though is it. We saw for example in the budget negotiations last year Rhodri Morgan and Ieuan Wyn Jones went into a room together they came to an agreement and Plaid abstained and the budget got passed. We’ve seen ad hoc agreements being made previously?

HL: "Yes but what this election campaign ought to be about. What I should... what I would be able to be talking about if it wasn't for this anonymous person or persons that we mentioned earlier is Labour's future promise and past achievements. And how we put that before the electorate with the aim of winning a Labour majority government which we have done before and we can do again. We have been upended in our campaign today by this individual or individuals. That combined actually with very damaging internet speculation which is going on at the moment I think has been a bad day for Labour and it needn't have been… I mean obviously there are people out there who think that they can play puppet master with the Welsh electorate. And indeed with the Labour party. Well they’ve got another thing coming.

Interviewer: Are they playing puppet master though Mr Lewis or are they simply recognizing something which some Labour sources have said is a fact which is that Labour are not going to get a Majority on May the 3r and therefore they are trying to think about what possible solutions for keeping Labour in government?

HL: Well look I think punditry is for pundits and not a serious politician. Politicians in all sincerity and that is what I’ve been doing with my party members shoulder to shoulder have been putting the Labour manifesto before the people door by door in my constituency. I saw the faces of those party members this morning when they heard about this speculation. I would just like to issue a quick challenge to our anonymous government constructor out there. Stand up to the microphone and identify yourself or get back to work knocking on doors and building a Labour majority.

Interviewer: As an aside there is more than one source for this story but that is an aside. Can I clarify Mr Lewis then. Is Labour ruling out any form of formal cooperation with Plaid Cymruwhatsoever come May the 3rd onwards?

HL: Well look I just condemned punditry and speculation and I’m not about to engage in it myself. I believe that Labour if we put our case to the Welsh electorate has every opportunity of building a majority government as we have done before to give clear leadership to Wales . I also believe that every vote for Plaid Cymru insidently brings the Tories closer to government in Wales and we have to remind people of that.”

Labour Election Strategy Torn to Shreds

Today’s revelations by the BBC that a senior Labour source has confirmed that the party is looking at a New Zealand political arrangement between them and Plaid has blown Labour’s election strategy to pieces. For over a year now we have been subjected to the great Tory led Coalition lie by Labour in their desperate attempts to shore up their core vote. I had a leaflet through the door the other day, 4/5 of the content went on about the great Tory bogeyman and how Plaid and the Lib Dems were going to prop up Bourne and co.

Yet again Labour has been caught with their pants down. By fighting the most negative campaign in electoral history, getting found out like this was what Labour deserved.

The unionist wing of the Labour party must be in uproar.

Labour deserves a pounding at the polls. Let’s hope the people of Wales have the confidence on May the 3rd to grasp their own destiny. The London parties are all as bad as each other. It’s time we move away from the deceit and dishonesty which characterises the London consensus.

update -as reported on BBC blogs Labour have issued threatening press notices accusing the BBC of fabricating the story. Peter Hain is in uproar that his careful plotting and deceit has been uncovered. It's a disgrace that instead of coming clean Labour continue to lie. I wouldn't expect nothing better from the unionist wing of the Labour party, but I would have expected Rhodri Morgan to act with a bit more dignity during what seems increasingly likely to be his last few days in Office.

Rhodri Abdicates Responsibility for NHS

Just listened to Rhodri Morgan on Radio Wales claiming that the Wales wides cuts has nothing to do with him or his government. Apparently, according to Rhodri, all the health bodies are acting independently from the Assembly Government.

And there was I thinking that local health bodies had formed local implementation plans based on the strategic guidance of his government.

If Rhodri is right, we desperately need a change of government willing to rain in these unruly bureaucrats, because clearly Labour have lost all control.

Who will take over from Rhodri?

Rhodri Morgan’s frank admission on Radio Wales this morning that he’ll go if Labour has a bad result in a month’s time is the latest act of a desperate Labour party. It looks like the only thing Labour has to offer is the sympathy vote.

With meltdown impending it looks like there will be three Labour leadership contents kick starting after May the 3rd - Blair, McConnell and Morgan.

This blog has long argued that Labour’s failure to come up with a new vision has been down to the inability of the main post Rhodri candidates to come to a common agreement. The hugely negative ‘Tory bogeyman’ strategy is being driven by the unionist wing of the party – whose own leadership chances will be vastly improved by a strong Tory showing on May the 3rd.

Step forward Leighton Andrews – the man who would be king?

'Uninspiring and Clueless' - Labour

The Scotsman today leads with Labour sources conceding defeat to the SNP. Recent polls in Scotland show the SNP continuing to pick up support. Jack McConnell and Alex Salmond go head to head tonight on TV.

Labour sources are placing the blame directly on McConnell. The report further criticises Labour’s lack of strategy – claiming decisions are being made on a day to day basis.

The same goes for Labour in Wales of course. Labour has no organised central core. The strategy seems all over the place. And Rhodri Morgan has the look of a man resigned to failure.

In Scotland, neither the Tories nor Labour have ruled out a Red-Blue coalition of unionists in order to stop the SNP forming a Government. Should Plaid do better than expected and gain parity with Labour, would we see a Red-Blue deal in Wales?

Ieuan V Rhodri

Ieuan v Rhodri

According to press reports there was an almighty row in the Assembly yesterday when Plaid Leader Ieuan Wyn Jones gave Rhodri Morgan a roasting on the Government’s appalling economic record in West Wales and the Valleys, Wales’ Objective 1/Convergence fund areas. Rhodri’s rebuttal was that Plaid was essentially miss-interpreting data.

In the public interest therefore please find below a GVA table which shows data on an all Wales basis; West Wales and the Valleys; and East Wales in % terms compared to the UK average. The table was compiled by the ONS i.e the Government’s own statisticians.

GVA per head indices (UK =100).

1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Wales 84 79 79 78 78 78 78

West Wales & Valleys 74 66 66 65 65 65 N.A.

East Wales 102 100 101 100 100 100 N.A.

Source: ONS 2006.

What seems pretty clear is that wealth levels in Wales’ poorest areas has stagnated; that the trend is downward; and that GVA in most of Wales lies at less than 2/3 of the UK average.

To put things in context, West Wales and the Valleys is the poorest part in the whole of the UK.

Is this what Labour call a proud economic legacy?

Rhodri Morgan to Join Plaid?

Hot on the heels of his stinging assessment of the damaging effect of a London centric economic system on Wales, Rhodri Morgan concluded his speaking tour of the US by making the case for independence for Wales.

Friday night at Columbia University, New York the First Minister (according to a press notice sent out by his team) said:

“In population terms Wales is bigger than five Member States and not very much smaller than another three. Why should this matter? Because Malta , with a population hardly bigger than Cardiff , has a direct seat at the table and access to the entire EU decision making machinery. It also has a much higher number of MEPs in proportion to its population. “

Thanks for making our case for us yet again Rhodri. I wonder what the unionist wing of the Labour party has to say about their Assembly Leader making the case for full EU membership for Wales, a status the EU term independence – and directly in line with Plaid’s constitutional ambition for our country.

I’m led to believe that the membership form is in the post!

Rhodri Morgan the new Saparmuat Niyazov?

I’m going to have to stop reading the Western Mail with my breakfast. For the second morning in succession I nearly chocked o my cornflakes. The offender yet again was the First Minister – who had a two page spread buttering toast in his home.

Things are looking bad for Labour and I suppose they have nothing left to offer but try and get sympathy votes on the back that Rhodri is on they way out. He has always reminded me of the grandfather I never had, but that doesn’t mean you want your grandfather to run the country.

Reading the First Minister in full flow immediately reminded me of the former president of Turkmenistan, Saparmuat Niyazov who died last year. Saparmuat, (apart from being one of the most authoritarian leaders in the world – and even I don’t claim that Rhodri is a despot) was quite a character – he ruled by cult of personality. He truly believed that he was the embodiment of the Turkmen nation.

Cue Rhodri Morgan in today’s Western Mail where he more or less makes the case that he is Wales and Wales is him. I hope the next stage of Rhodri’s megalomania means he wont follow Saparmuat and start naming months after members of his family!

______________________________________________________________

Saparmuat Niyaziv - "I admit it, there are too many portraits, pictures and monuments. I don't find any pleasure in it, but the people demand it because of their mentality."

Rhodri Morgan in today's Western Mail ' "You are who you are and you just tend to get on with the job the way that you think suits the political and social culture of Wales, which is not deferential. Everybody says about the people in Wales that they won't tug the forelock. Therefore you have to build up a political system with devolution around that culture, the non-forelock-tugging, non-deferential culture. I think that's the way that is healthiest for Wales, and certainly healthiest for me, because it comes naturally to me."

Rhodri Agrees With Plaid

I nearly chocked on my cornflakes this morning when I read the Western Mail. In it we have the First Minister making the economic argument Plaid has been making over the years – ie that core UK fiscal and economic policy works against the interests of Wales.

I take back everything I wrote about him yesterday after his climate change gaffe. With his damning indictment of the South East of England centric obsession of Gordon Brown’s policies, it makes it ever harder to understand why he is supporting Brown for the Labour leadership.

Is the First Minister Losing the Plot? - Do one Legged Ducks Swim in Circles!

The First Minister has put his foot in it again with his astonishing assessment that global warming would effectively be helpful to the Welsh economy. According to reports this is the reason why he opposes Plaid’s commitment to cut carbon emissions by 3% per annum, the sort of radical policy which is essential for us to embrace if we are to avoid the inevitable global catastrophe that climate change entails.

Perhaps the First Minister should read the Stern report which states that no action on climate change will lead to a crash of about 20% in the global economy. In such circumstances of a global economic meltdown it’s difficult to equate his statements that Wales would prosper.

Reading between the lines his argument is that we in Wales are likely to suffer less environmentally than the rest of the world. That’s the sort of narrow minded and visionless approach which characterises his party and his Administration. The logic of Rhodri Morgan’s argument is that we in Wales should increase carbon emissions and do everything in our power to speed up global warming. Come to think of it maybey the reason why carbon emissions have gone up under Labour is that this is all part of masterplan rather than the gross negligence I had assumed.

It’s astonishing that the First Minister has decided to make this statement at the same time when the National Trust warns that 1,572 hectares of its costal land in Wales is at risk of flooding caused by raising sea levels.

These appear to be the rantings of a lunatic – no wonder so many Labour AMs are positioning themselves ready for May the 4th.

Labour Duplicity

Yet again we witness the surreal ability of Labour politicians to distance themselves from their own party’s policies. I am referring to yesterday’s PCS strike over Gordon Browns savage public sector cuts. Splashed across the Western Mail today is Assembly Minister Sue Essex proclaiming total support for the strikers against her own party’s policies. When you are a branch of a London based party, its disingenuous to distance yourself from the policies of your paymasters.

The problem for Rhodri Morgan is that he has come out in support of an early Gordon Brown succession. He must be the only person who actually believes that good old Gordon is going to turn the clock back when he gets to 10 Downing Street and bring in a new socialist dawn. In case Rhodri hasn’t noticed, Gordon is the ideological Godfather of the whole New Labour domestic project. When his Ministers are crying crocodile tears over public sector job cuts, they are directly opposing Gordon Brown’s centralisation and privatisation agenda. So as WAG apparently now oppose Gordon’s job cuts plan, does that mean that they no longer support the succession? Clearly if there is such fundamental opposition to a core plank of Brownism (the Scottish version of Thatcherism) it would be insincere not to oppose his leadership bid.

At the end of the day there comes a point when politicians have to have some remnants of political coherence to their arguments. We are now led to believe that Labour AMs oppose the policies that Labour MPs based in Wales voted through in supporting the last Comprehensive Spending Review. They can’t have it both ways.


Will the real Labour in Wales please stand up?

Welsh Unionism

Blamerbell in his provocative style asks a legitimate question in a recent blog ‘Is there such a thing as Welsh unionism?’

The Labour party in Wales have a clear unionist wing, currently led by the likes of Leighton Andrews, Huw Lewis and seemingly Peter Hain. The Tories are still officially called the Conservative and Unionist Party – so that’s clear enough.

It’s the unionist wing in the Labour which has been calling all the shots of late. It was they who came up with the farcical Vote Plaid get Tory strategy – in which the Tories were quite happy to dovetail as it was of equal benefit to them. Here is the real coalition in Welsh politics of course, the unionist wing of the Labour party and the Tories.

It's no secret the Labour Party in Wales is facing meltdown at the Assembly elections, and it seems increasingly improbable that Rhodri Morgan will be able to continue to lead in those circumstances (He has actually gone on the record as saying that he’ll go once he loses the confidence of the people of Wales – based on whether Labour get an overall majority – in that context with nobody in their right mind expecting an overall majority for Labour after May, Rhodri Morgan is a dead man walking).

When Rhodri stands down after the election, the Labour Party will inevitably be forced into civil war as the Welsh and unionist wings strive for control. The reality is that a strong performance by the Tories will aid the internal arguments of the unionist wing within the Labour Party in Wales.

One of the major reasons for Labour’s lack of vision for a third term is that all the main contenders for the Labour Assembly Group leadership are positioning themselves ready for May the 4th.

The real dynamic in Welsh politics is between the forces of progression and those who wish to hold Wales back. Between those who want to see Wales move forward, and those who will stoop to anything to hold on to their position of power, be it at a Welsh level or in Westminster.

Welcome to Wales Tony

The Western Mail is reporting today that Labour strategists are going to send Tony Blair to Wales on a number of occasions during the Assembly campaign. Plaid Cymru are licking their lips at the haemorrhaging of Labour votes every time the Prime Minister makes an appearance.

The report does raise some serious questions about who is running the Labour show. First of all why is a so called ‘Welsh Labour’ campaign being organised in London? Why are Blair and Brown being used so much - undermining the whole ethos of so called ‘Welsh Labour’?

All this points to yet more evidence of the weakening position of Rhodri Morgan. Half of his AMs are already positioning themselves ready for his imminent retirement, and now it looks like London Labour have been called in to save Labour in Wales from impending meltdown.