The Lib Dem Farce Keeps on Rolling

Mike German has been hitting the airwaves all weekend saying that unless Plaid commit to a rainbow deal they are going to restart negotiating with Labour - conveniently forgetting we only are where we are ‘cause they suspended negotiations with Labour in the first place. Let's be honest, a return to Lib – Lab negotiations would be farcical. German's actions is the political equivalent of a baby throwing his toys out of the pram.

I wouldn’t put anything passed the Labour party, reneging on any Red – Green deal is obviously a distinct possibility. However it would alienate the significant proportion of their support that want to see advancement on the constitutional question.

Some would argue that Plaid should cut their losses and do a rainbow deal now to make sure they are not left with nothing. An alternative view is that the actions of the Lib Dems are tantamount to blackmail, and why would you want to spend the next four years with a bunch of charlatans holding a gun to your head?

The Deep Irresponsibility of the Lib Dems

Wales is now faced with the worst possible option, Labour minority rule.

Plaid’s bilateral approach ended on the basis that a rainbow deal could be delivered. Now unfortunately there’s absolutely nothing on the table for anyone and the programme of government for the next four years is going to be based on Labour’s manifesto, a most boring, unimaginative and visionless document.

The red – green document which was still work in progress provided a basis to seriously move Wales forward. Let’s hope that momentum can be built up behind a return to red green talks after the recess. It would be equally irresponsible for Labour to cut off its nose to spite its face at this stage by going alone.

What's the Point of the Lib Dems?

What a bunch of amateurs. Regardless of my own self questioning over rainbow or red-green, what the hell are the Lib Dems up to?

Their only raison d'etre is PR. That would have been delivered for local government had the rainbow gone ahead. They have turned their back on their main aim just to get rid of their Leader - who was desperate for a deal with anyone to save his political skin.

The Lib Dems can drop any claim to being a serious party. You can't fight an election on the basis of getting more influence on the governance of Wales and then talk your way out of two deals that would put you in government.

It looks like a minority Labour Government now, my instincts hope that Red-Green can be put back on the table. Labour will probably stick two fingers up to everyone now in typical sectarian manner. However, Rhodri Morgan should reflect and understand that the draft Red - Green draft document provides a chance for him to deliver real change in Wales before he retires. Again the question is does he have the conviction and the authority within his own group to deliver?

How the Assembly Electoral System Favours Labour

Labour political dominance over Wales has largely been maintained by the First Past the Post electoral system. As a result of the 2005 General Election, Labour won 72.5% of Wales’ Parliamentary seats based on just 42.7% of the vote.

Now that the figures are in for the 2007 National Assembly elections (and I’m bored out of my head) I have taken the liberty of analysing the Assembly voting system to see how far it goes to secure fair votes.

The vast majority of seats for the Assembly continue to be elected via First Past the Post, based on Wales’ 40 Parliamentary constituencies. The results are as follows


Party
Votes (to the nearest thousand)
% of Vote
Seats
% of vote required per seat
No of votes required per seat
Con
219,000
22.4
7
3.2
31,285
Plaid
219,000
22.4
8
2.8
27,375
Lib
144,000
14.8
3
4.9
48,000
Lab
315,000
32.2
24
1.3
13,125


The figures are quite clear, Labour do particularly well out of the First Past the Post System. They only need 13,125 votes per seat as compared to the massive 48,000 votes needed by the Libs. Plaid and the Tories have to gain twice as many votes as Labour per constituency seat.

Matters are somewhat addressed by the use of a regional top up system (d’Hondt). The following table provides an analysis based on combining both constituency and regional ballots.

Party
Votes (to the nearest thousand)
% of Votes
Seats
% of vote required per seat
No ov votes required per seat
Con
428,000
21.9
12
1.8
35,700
Plaid
424,000
21.7
15
1.4
28,300
Lib
259,000
13.3
6
2.21
43,200
Lab
604,000
30.9
26
1.2
23,200

Yet again we see how even with an element of PR introduced the result continues to be skewed substantially in Labour’s favour.

Before anyone accuses me of being a hypocrite I do acknowledge that Plaid did well out of the system this time. But we still have to get over 5,000 more votes per seat when compared to Labour. The poor Lib Dems have to get 20,000 extra votes per seat!

If we had a totally proportional system, Labour would be reduced to 19. Plaid and the Tories would be on 13 and the Libs on 8. UKIP, the BNP, Independents and the Greens would all probably get at least one seat.

Labour hegemony over life in Wales has always been supported by an unfair voting system that gives them a disproportionate political representation. This political clout has been used by Labour to dominate every aspect of Welsh life, as careerists pay homage in the name of their own personal progress. A one party state has been built around a voting system that does not reflect the political wishes of the people of Wales. In anyone’s book this isn’t a healthy democracy, and partly explains why our country has stagnated over the years.

In the unlikely event of electoral reform at Westminster level, I hope that whatever agreement is reached in order to form the next Government of Wales, contains provision for fair votes for local government and any election to a proper Welsh Parliament. The current d’Hondt system is only a step in the right direction.

Undoubtedly Labour hacks will point to the current instability in Wales as why PR is an idealistic pipe dream. I used to agree but have now changed my mind. I’m also quite easy minded about coalitions. Furthermore, it is precisely because of the likely result of the election many of us were exacerbated by Labour’s sectarian and tribalist strategy.

Surely it’s a sign of strength in our democracy that our political leaders following an election have to sit down and work a way forward based on the common good.

Brown for Britain!

If I was a London Labour strategist I'd use the coronation of Gordon Brown as the beginning of a 100 day war leading into the annual Labour Conference before using the new leaders speech to call a snap election.

Politically it has a lot of advantages. It enables the new PM to launch a short term policy blitz with plenty of electoral sweeteners; it will catch the Tories unprepared - there is no way that they will have produced a coherent programme of government by the Autumn; and Brown will invariably be on a honeymoon.

The one major problem for Labour is that the bank is empty - £20m in the red. They haven't the war chest to match the Tories at present.

If they went early I think Labour could win an overall majority. If Brown decides to serve another two/three years, the Tories will overtake Labour. The question is will there be enough Lib Dems left in Parliament to make up the numbers for a Lib - Lab arrangement.

We live in interesting times as they say.

Great Night for Plaid

I've finally got the will to blog again after the election count. What a fantastic result for Plaid, up three seats and we achieved the top of our ambitions. For the London parties it was a disaster. Labour with their worst result since the First World War, if that doesn't constitute a bad result then what does, were spared humiliation by reckless briefing up during the early stages of the count by the Tories and Lib Dems. When their expected gains didn't materialise, all the sudden it wasn't that bad for Labour.

The Tories are facing crisis, they have lost by far their biggest electoral asset in Glyn Davies - the only politician who could credibly carry off their triangulation attempts v Plaid. Instead they have some right wing nutcases like the new member for Clwyd West. I'm sure political opponents can''t wait to start debating against and getting him to open his mouth - The return of the nasty party is inevitable. Despite all the hype the Tory breakthrough failed to materialise.

The Lib Dems are in open warfare. What did they expect from an election strategy based on the ego of their leader and his wish for a ministerial car?

Plaid stopped the rot with some outstanding wins in Llanelli (Helen Mary's near 4,000 majority is testament to what Plaid can achieve in every part of Wales) and Aberconwy. Some near misses in Carms West, Clwyd West and Caerphilly.

Carms East as always produced an amazing result for Plaid - nearly 9,000 majority in a seat consisting of 2 industrial valleys. Looks like Adam Price will now have to get over the 10,000 majority mark in the next General Election - that's what I call healthy competition!

For me Neath was a great result, a 7% swing to reduce Labour's majority to less than 2,000. My prediction we won the election day voting is probably right.

The Fib Dems are at it again

The Lib Dems in South Wales West have published a leaflet claiming they are campaigning to save adult neurosurgery in Morriston hospital. Slightly disingenuous it could be argued, as most their Assembly group including their health spokesperson voted in favour of centralising the service in Cardiff.

The only party who remained consistent in their position on this issue was Plaid. Let's hope the people of West Wales don't get hoodwinked by yet more cynical opportunism by the London parties.

update - several Labour candidates in the Swansea area are also claiming in literature that they are against closing the neurosurgery unit in Morriston. if its such a defining issue then the honourable thing to do would be to leave the Labour party as it is primarilly their policy to centralise the service in Cardiff.

Lib Dems Election Gaffe

The first major election cock up falls to Charles Kennedy and the Lib Dems. On a visit to the Airbus plant in North Wales, Mr Kennedy was full of praise. Only problem, the workers were out on strike over terms and consitions.

Guardian ICM Poll – Brown and New Labour in trouble

The Guardian ICM poll today is very bad news for Gordon Brown and the Liberal Democrats. If Brown was leader of Labour the Tories would have a 13% gap – their largest lead since 1992. Labours rating puts them at the same level as their result in the 1983 General Election under Michael Foot.

This is desperately bad news for Brown personally. His only hope is to call a snap election after assuming power, probably at the end of the first 100 days after a policy blitz, and hope the honeymoon period will be enough to carry him through. The added advantage of such a strategy would be that all Cameron has done so far is talk about ambiguous ideas – the Tories have no coherent policy platform in place ready to face a General Election, much in the same way that the only pledges they are coming up with here in Wales are, “we’ll look at this, re-start that, review those”.

Its very high risk stuff. Will Brown who has waited for so long for the top job risk it all on assuming the Premiership. My view is that if he waits ‘till 2009/2010 the Tories will steam roll, he has to go early if he is to have any chance.

Far be it from me to offer any advice to the Labour party, but Gordon Brown is a dead duck leader in waiting. They have to find someone new, fresh and dynamic. Someone able to renew the party and hope the Cameron effect in Middle England runs out of steam and that they are able to exploit the clear contradictions that exist within the Tory party. The problem for Labour is that their talent pool isn’t exactly deep.

The other interesting finding in the poll is that the Lib Dems are on 17%. They are clearly being squeezed and losing votes to the Tories. It seems that the coup of Charles Kennedy as been an unmitigated failure. If they had not purged him, he would be the most experienced leader of all the three London parties once Blair stood down.

Looks like a very busy year for us here in Wales. After the Assembly elections in May I wouldn’t bet against an Autumn General Election if Brown is PM.

Lib Dem Coalition on Swansea Council

Today’s revelations in media must make painful reading and watching for the Lib Dems. As a party they have skilfully managed to create the perception that butter wouldn’t melt in their mouths. Must be something to do with the politics of Westminster where the Lib Dems have traditionally played the part of a little brother who ducks for cover whilst the two elder siblings go for it hammer and tongs.

Those of us involved in politics know the reality couldn’t be further from the truth, recall the ruthlessness with which they ousted Charles Kennedy last year. Third world despots would be proud of such a perfectly organised coup d'état.

Well as the old saying goes power corrupts – and as we are witnessing in Swansea where the Lib Dem council are in coalition with Independent Councillors who are plainly in it merely for the money. Ioan Richard my sources inform me is not the sort of guy you mess with if you catch my drift, and perhaps that explains why it wasn’t the Lib Dems who leaked his e mail to the press in which he recommends stitching up every committee meeting just so that he can get a few extra quid.

The inconsistencies of the Liberal Democrats

The poor Lib Dems in Scotland seem to be a mixed up bunch. On the one hand they have ruled out a refferendum on Scottish independence as a part of any coalition pact after the elections. Yet in the case of a Gordon Brown Premiership succession demand an immediate General Election..........so that the electorate can have a choice.

Is it me or would a clear SNP victory in May clearly show the will of the Scottish people to have a vote on the next step of their constitutional journey. The problem for Ming Campbell of course is that a Yes vote would mean the immediate end of his London Parliamentary career.

Having thought about it no wonder both himself and Gordon Brown are in such a state of panic.

Leighton Andrews - A Broken Record

Today we see Leighton Andrews at it again trying to revive his failed VPGT (Vote Plaid Get Tory) strategy in the Western Mail. Poor Leighton has been in a bit of a tiff since the Assembly budget debate - when the tactics employed by the Plaid leadership effectively undermined over a year of Labour propaganda. Without anything positive to say about Labour's record in government, Leighton is trying to revive what to most people is politically absurd. Looks like he hasn't got the ability to come up with anything else.

Interestingly the Lib Dems in the shape of Peter Black on his blog has jumped on a bit of Labour mischief making as a statement of fact. With the red line of local government PR now dropped looks like the Lib-Lab pact is back in full swing.

Hain is at it Again

I just don’t get the hero worshiping of Peter Hain amongst journalists in Wales. He changes his position so often he makes a Chameleon look like a grey wall. The latest gambit of the former Lib Dem is to try and distance himself from the foreign policy disaster of his own Government in the New Statesman. Let’s examine Peter’s record on this issue:

He has resisted any attempts led by Plaid Cymru to have a proper Parliamentary

investigation into the run up to the war or its aftermath.
He supported the conflict as a junior minister when his boss in the Foreign Office, Robin Cook, did the honourable thing and resigned.

After four years of supporting the war and the death of over 600,000 Iraqis, over 2% of the population, he has all of the sudden come to the conclusion that the invasion is a mistake.

The question is will he have the courage of his convictions and vote against the government next week during the Iraq debate?