There’s increasing speculation that the current red – green negotiations are being driven from the very top of the Labour party. Rumour has it that Gordon Brown himself has basically told Rhodri Morgan to do anything to stop a Rainbow deal.
It makes political sense for Gordon of course with the next General Election in mind; the last thing he wants is open hostility along the whole Celtic fringe. The SNP are already running rings around the Westminster government, the last thing Gordon needs is more trouble coming from Wales.
Project Gordon has tried to circumvent the problem of his status as a Scottish MP by portraying him and the Labour party as the embodiment of Britishness. I think they have got it totally wrong, trying to act as the dam against the inevitable flood will get Labour nowhere. It seems ironic that the party that proposed devolution has been less able to adjust to the new political dynamics created.
There is little doubt that the Tories will probe at the Scottish roots of the PM in waiting as we near the General Election. Rebellion from the Celtic fringes will only fuel rightful desires for English self determination. The problem for Gordon is that English voters are more than likely to look to the Eton boy than the MP for Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath.
Which brings us back to Wales. If I was a Brown strategist, I’d definitely be telling Rhodri to do the deal.
Showing posts with label Gordon Brown. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Gordon Brown. Show all posts
Thursday, June 14, 2007
Wednesday, May 16, 2007
How Right Wing Are the PLP?
I just don't get the Labour party of today. In John McDonnell there is a totally respectable challenger to Gordon Brown. In response to the market led Thatcherite approach of Brown and Blair he wants a change of direction, one based on empowerment and democratisation of society. This seems totally reasonable to me. Yet it is unlikely he will get the necessary nominations from his Parliamentary Labour Party colleagues to force an election. You have to ask what's happened to the PLP. Stick a Labour MP on a soap box and you will undoubtedly be subjected to a tirade of anti - Thatcherism. Yet their own party are pursuing exactly the same agenda.
In conclusion 1, they are either so stupid they don't know what their own leaders are doing or 2, they are trying to pull the wool over everyones eyes.
Thatcher always said her proudest achievement was New Labour. Guardian columnists bizarrely like to claim that Blair's greatest achievement is Cameron's Tories. The Tories have just gone back to their traditional centre right ground, Blair and Brown have just nicked their spots.
It comes to something when Peter Hain is described as a 'libertarian socialist'. This is the man that presides as a Governor General over Wales and gerrymandered the electoral system in favour of his own party. He has voted for a disastrous war in Iraq and regressive policies such as the marketisation of public services.
What are Labour MPs scared of? Surely the membership of the Labour party should decide the next leader of the party
In conclusion 1, they are either so stupid they don't know what their own leaders are doing or 2, they are trying to pull the wool over everyones eyes.
Thatcher always said her proudest achievement was New Labour. Guardian columnists bizarrely like to claim that Blair's greatest achievement is Cameron's Tories. The Tories have just gone back to their traditional centre right ground, Blair and Brown have just nicked their spots.
It comes to something when Peter Hain is described as a 'libertarian socialist'. This is the man that presides as a Governor General over Wales and gerrymandered the electoral system in favour of his own party. He has voted for a disastrous war in Iraq and regressive policies such as the marketisation of public services.
What are Labour MPs scared of? Surely the membership of the Labour party should decide the next leader of the party
Tuesday, May 15, 2007
PFI – The fleecing of public money
There’s a very interesting article in the business section of the Independent today referring to the fleecing of public money by PFI schemes. Jeremy Warner notes that history is repeating itself.
Thatcher’s privatisation essentially meant that public assets were sold off to the private sector at bargain prices, effectively ripping off the public purse. According to the House of Commons Public Accounts Committee, the same sort of thing is happening with PFI. The scale of PFI debt, running at well over £160bn according to the last budget if memory serves me correct, means that this is a scandal of unprecedented scale. These are not some sort of side government initiatives, PFI or PPP (Public Private Partnerships as they are called now) have been the central plank of Labour public service financing. It’s political significance is magnified by the fact that the architect of PFI is about to become Prime Minister.
Warner writes:
“In particular, the public sector is failing to share in the lucrative benefits that accrue when the debt is refinanced on better terms, or the equity is sold in the secondary market at bumper profit. This is despite the fact that the foundations on which these refinancing profits are built are the revenues supplied by the taxpayer.”
In other words as taxpayers we are being ripped off. Opponents of PFI from the start warned about the over generous returns for private firms from the public purse for their original investment. Now it turns out that whole schemes have been guilty of mismanagement and profiteering.
Now I readily accept that apart from the £16bn monster PFI deal in St Athan, we have seen very little PFI in Wales. However, this matter continues to be relevant to the Welsh taxpayer due to the centralised nature of the taxation system in the UK.
Over the years Brown has been accused of mortgaging the future of the UK by accumulating so much PFI debt. As a more learned colleague once informed me, with PFI, mortgaging the future is to kind a word as assets even after being repaid at vastly inflated costs continue to be privately owned. What Brown has done effectively is accumulate an astronomical amount of unsecured debt. He is the credit card kid of politics.
Thatcher’s privatisation essentially meant that public assets were sold off to the private sector at bargain prices, effectively ripping off the public purse. According to the House of Commons Public Accounts Committee, the same sort of thing is happening with PFI. The scale of PFI debt, running at well over £160bn according to the last budget if memory serves me correct, means that this is a scandal of unprecedented scale. These are not some sort of side government initiatives, PFI or PPP (Public Private Partnerships as they are called now) have been the central plank of Labour public service financing. It’s political significance is magnified by the fact that the architect of PFI is about to become Prime Minister.
Warner writes:
“In particular, the public sector is failing to share in the lucrative benefits that accrue when the debt is refinanced on better terms, or the equity is sold in the secondary market at bumper profit. This is despite the fact that the foundations on which these refinancing profits are built are the revenues supplied by the taxpayer.”
In other words as taxpayers we are being ripped off. Opponents of PFI from the start warned about the over generous returns for private firms from the public purse for their original investment. Now it turns out that whole schemes have been guilty of mismanagement and profiteering.
Now I readily accept that apart from the £16bn monster PFI deal in St Athan, we have seen very little PFI in Wales. However, this matter continues to be relevant to the Welsh taxpayer due to the centralised nature of the taxation system in the UK.
Over the years Brown has been accused of mortgaging the future of the UK by accumulating so much PFI debt. As a more learned colleague once informed me, with PFI, mortgaging the future is to kind a word as assets even after being repaid at vastly inflated costs continue to be privately owned. What Brown has done effectively is accumulate an astronomical amount of unsecured debt. He is the credit card kid of politics.
Monday, May 14, 2007
Gordon Brown a Friend of First Time Buyers?
Credit where credit is due, Gordon Brown is onto something with his plan to build 5 new towns consisting of a total of 100,000 eco homes. These towns will be carbon neutral using locally sourced energy. Without seeing the detail I’ll take the announcement at face value. During the Assembly election Plaid made the case for greater local energy production, whereby whole communities produce their own energy working outside or in addition to the national grid. This isn’t pie in the sky stuff, Woking already has such a system, and you have to ask why aren’t we already seeing the same sort of developments in Wales?
The second part of Brown’s plan is to increase opportunities for home ownership. He is trying to make himself out as the friend of those unable to purchase a home. The problem he faces of course is that the hyperinflation we have witnessed in the housing market over the last ten years has been a direct consequence of his own policies. There has never been a Chancellor so ready to fiddle the system to deliberately drive up house prices. The most blatant of course was his decision to change official inflation from the Retail Price Index to the Consumer Price Index, which meant that interest rates have remained artificially low.
Politicians and political parties always have to reinvent themselves to stay in the game. This however is a clear case of too little too late.
The second part of Brown’s plan is to increase opportunities for home ownership. He is trying to make himself out as the friend of those unable to purchase a home. The problem he faces of course is that the hyperinflation we have witnessed in the housing market over the last ten years has been a direct consequence of his own policies. There has never been a Chancellor so ready to fiddle the system to deliberately drive up house prices. The most blatant of course was his decision to change official inflation from the Retail Price Index to the Consumer Price Index, which meant that interest rates have remained artificially low.
Politicians and political parties always have to reinvent themselves to stay in the game. This however is a clear case of too little too late.
Friday, May 11, 2007
Brown for Britain!
If I was a London Labour strategist I'd use the coronation of Gordon Brown as the beginning of a 100 day war leading into the annual Labour Conference before using the new leaders speech to call a snap election.
Politically it has a lot of advantages. It enables the new PM to launch a short term policy blitz with plenty of electoral sweeteners; it will catch the Tories unprepared - there is no way that they will have produced a coherent programme of government by the Autumn; and Brown will invariably be on a honeymoon.
The one major problem for Labour is that the bank is empty - £20m in the red. They haven't the war chest to match the Tories at present.
If they went early I think Labour could win an overall majority. If Brown decides to serve another two/three years, the Tories will overtake Labour. The question is will there be enough Lib Dems left in Parliament to make up the numbers for a Lib - Lab arrangement.
We live in interesting times as they say.
Monday, April 23, 2007
The UK a Tax Haven – International Monetary Fund
The IMF, the world’s most important financial organisation has labelled the UK an offshore tax haven. Before everyone gets excited, the report was referring to the very favourable tax status afforded to non domiciled citizens, many of whom are amongst Labour’s largest financial backers.
These super rich, the likes of Lakshmi Mittal; Philip Green; Hans Rausing; Mohamed Al Fayed; and Roman Abramovich, who are amongst the richest people on the planet pay virtually no tax for living in the UK.
Gordon Brown to herald a new socialist dawn – don’t make me laugh.
These super rich, the likes of Lakshmi Mittal; Philip Green; Hans Rausing; Mohamed Al Fayed; and Roman Abramovich, who are amongst the richest people on the planet pay virtually no tax for living in the UK.
Gordon Brown to herald a new socialist dawn – don’t make me laugh.
Thursday, April 19, 2007
There May Be Trouble Ahead
Anthony Hilton in the Evening Standard yesterday provides an interesting insight to the growing concern amongst city analysts that the wheels might just be about to come off the UK economy. With 'official' inflation even topping 3% and an expectation that interest rates might well top 6% in the very near future, Labour's handling of the economy is fast becoming politically problematic. With things in the US not looking too clever, concerns are inevitably heightened.
I have long argues that Brown has been a chancer, he has deliberately changed the goalposts and gerrymandered the economy to ensure his short term goals are met. Economies such as Wales' traditional manufacturing base have been abandoned by Labour as the City has been let to go hay wire destabilising the long term prosperity of the whole economy. (Its little wonder that wealth levels in Wales have collapsed by 6% in the last 10 years compared to the UK average). The end result is an economic legacy built on sand - correction is inevitable sooner or later.
The concerns are outlined by Hilton as follows -
I have long argues that Brown has been a chancer, he has deliberately changed the goalposts and gerrymandered the economy to ensure his short term goals are met. Economies such as Wales' traditional manufacturing base have been abandoned by Labour as the City has been let to go hay wire destabilising the long term prosperity of the whole economy. (Its little wonder that wealth levels in Wales have collapsed by 6% in the last 10 years compared to the UK average). The end result is an economic legacy built on sand - correction is inevitable sooner or later.
The concerns are outlined by Hilton as follows -
- a massive balance of payments deficit
- low productivity
- poor state of education
- dependence on the public sector for job creation
- unprecedented levels of personal unsecured debt fuelled by unsustainable house prices
- the reliance on the City to drive UK growth based on mispricing of risk and quasi-monopolistic extraction of fees and bonuses
I could add
- growing north-south divide
- loss of over a million manufacturing jobs
- growing individual wealth inequalities
Hilton argues frighteningly that the whole UK economy is basically one giant hedge fund - a massive one way bet on financial services. Brown has put is eggs all in one basket with no plan B.
The relevance of all this to us in Wales is we desperately need a change of Government on May the 3rd so that we can have a change of approach that develops our indigenous businesses using the opportunities provided by convergence funding in particular in our poorest areas. The clouds are gathering and we need to develop our own plan B in Wales.
Brown is coming to Wales tomorrow. The political illiteracy of Rhodri Morgan and so called Welsh Labour is that they view this 'Son of Thatcher' as an electoral asset. I'm sure the people of Wales are delighted to get a visit from the man who has been responsible for making us the poorest part of the UK.
Wednesday, March 14, 2007
Global Warming & Trident – The Great Contradiction
This week’s news agenda has been dominated by two issues. The London parties have been in a frenzy to try and claim the green agenda as their own with the Tories and Labour making some grand announcements. The other big story is Trident.
The Times today runs a very interesting cartoon depicting the great contradiction in the position of the Tories and Labour in particular. On the one hand they are trying to save the planet with greener policies. Yet when it comes to weapons that can destroy the world at a touch of a button, both Cameron and Blair/Brown have no problem in making the case. Even the Lib Dems, in typical fence sitting style, won’t rule out renewing Trident.
The proponents of nuclear weapons need to answer one thing. On what basis would these weapons be used? If for instance a terrorist cell planted a dirty bomb in London, who would the Government retaliate against? The very nature of a terrorist cell is that it is not nation state aligned – the 7 07 bombers for instance were UK citizens – so what would be the retaliation of the UK Government? To nuke the city the terrorists came from, even if it was a UK city? The whole thing is totally insane. If they decided to attack a city in the Middle East the terrorist would have achieved their objective, polarising opinion in the region in favour of the ideology of the terrorists. The fact of the matter is that the nuclear deterrent can not work against terrorism – which the Government admits is the major security threat to these islands.
Proponents of nuclear weapons claim it is an insurance policy, however it can only ‘work’ on a nation state v nation state basis. Many of us would argue that the fact that there wasn’t a nuclear catastrophe during the cold war was down to pure luck rather than design, Gorbachev and Regan subscribe to that and they know what they are talking about.
Say for instance Iran developed a nuclear weapon, they would then still have to find a way of delivering the device via an intercontinental missile to the UK. They are nowhere near being able to develop delivery devices of that kind. The UK Government should know, we are dependent upon the US technology to deliver any nuclear weapons if we decided to use them.
The whole debate is about the vanity of Blair and the cowardice of Brown. Blair wants to secure his legacy and Brown who wants this issue out of the way before his watch. How pathetic the Labour party has become.
The Times today runs a very interesting cartoon depicting the great contradiction in the position of the Tories and Labour in particular. On the one hand they are trying to save the planet with greener policies. Yet when it comes to weapons that can destroy the world at a touch of a button, both Cameron and Blair/Brown have no problem in making the case. Even the Lib Dems, in typical fence sitting style, won’t rule out renewing Trident.
The proponents of nuclear weapons need to answer one thing. On what basis would these weapons be used? If for instance a terrorist cell planted a dirty bomb in London, who would the Government retaliate against? The very nature of a terrorist cell is that it is not nation state aligned – the 7 07 bombers for instance were UK citizens – so what would be the retaliation of the UK Government? To nuke the city the terrorists came from, even if it was a UK city? The whole thing is totally insane. If they decided to attack a city in the Middle East the terrorist would have achieved their objective, polarising opinion in the region in favour of the ideology of the terrorists. The fact of the matter is that the nuclear deterrent can not work against terrorism – which the Government admits is the major security threat to these islands.
Proponents of nuclear weapons claim it is an insurance policy, however it can only ‘work’ on a nation state v nation state basis. Many of us would argue that the fact that there wasn’t a nuclear catastrophe during the cold war was down to pure luck rather than design, Gorbachev and Regan subscribe to that and they know what they are talking about.
Say for instance Iran developed a nuclear weapon, they would then still have to find a way of delivering the device via an intercontinental missile to the UK. They are nowhere near being able to develop delivery devices of that kind. The UK Government should know, we are dependent upon the US technology to deliver any nuclear weapons if we decided to use them.
The whole debate is about the vanity of Blair and the cowardice of Brown. Blair wants to secure his legacy and Brown who wants this issue out of the way before his watch. How pathetic the Labour party has become.
Friday, March 2, 2007
Real Terms Pay Cut for Nurses as City Bonuses hit £9bn
Yet again we witness the priorities of ‘son of Thatcher’ Gordon Brown. Nurses across the UK this year will have a real terms pay cut, as their annual increase of only 2.5% is way below even the government’s doctored measure of inflation.
At a time when real inflation (energy prices, fuel bills, council tax etc) has been going through the roof, the Chancellor’s stooge like behaviour is going to hit our public servants particularly hard.
City bonuses currently stand at around £9bn per annum, and Gordon Brown has repeatedly refused to intervene to curtail the fat cat culture of the square mile.
Just goes to show the sort of skewed priorities of this New Labour Government.
At a time when real inflation (energy prices, fuel bills, council tax etc) has been going through the roof, the Chancellor’s stooge like behaviour is going to hit our public servants particularly hard.
City bonuses currently stand at around £9bn per annum, and Gordon Brown has repeatedly refused to intervene to curtail the fat cat culture of the square mile.
Just goes to show the sort of skewed priorities of this New Labour Government.
Wednesday, February 28, 2007
Enter the Young Pretender?
The Guardian reports today that Charles Clarke and Alun Milburn are paving the way for a David Miliband leadership challenge by calling for an open policy debate before Tony Blair departs. Bad news for Gordon Brown who wants to keep his policy cards close to his chest in the hope that his planned shock and awe tactics during the first hundred days would blow David Cameron out of the water. Looks like a leadership election could well be back on the cards.
Tuesday, February 27, 2007
The Battle for Labour's Soul
Newsnight ran an excellent piece last night relating to the growing row over Labour’s asset stripping cash. The debate between Sion Simon and John McDonnell clearly showed that this issue could become a battle for the soul of the Labour party.
What’s most interesting from a Welsh perspective is that of the figures at the heart of the scandal Sir Ronald Cohen is Gordon Brown’s equivalent of Blair’s Lord Levy.
Labour in figures in Wales are huge supporters of a Brown succession. Guilt by association therefore means that they not only favour his right wing policies, but also support his clear backing for these firms which are described as ultra capitalists.
In Wales we have already seen the Trade Unions dishing out letters to their members in support of Labour’s campaign. The irony is plain for all to see.
It’s the incoherence of the whole thing I don’t get. On the one hand you’ve got the Trade Unions throwing their formidable weight behind a Labour party in Wales that openly supports a London regime that is funded by the very sort of people the Trade Unions were set up to fight against.
Instead of peddling spin and smear for the Labour party, the Trade Union leadership in Wales should concentrate on protecting their members. My father was an Union shop steward all his working life and joined Plaid when Kinnock started the New Labour revolution and they turned their backs on working people. It’s about time the Trade Union membership rose in revolt against a docile Union Leadership in Wales whose only loyalty is to a party that has long forgotten the principles which founded it.
I have a lot of time for John McDonnell and other principled Labour MPs. The tragedy of the current make up of the Parliamentary Labour Party is that it is unlikely that John or Michael Meacher will get the necessary support to launch a leadership election against Brown.
Those of us who come from the South Wales valleys, from traditional socialist families, know that we are in our natural home with Plaid.
What’s most interesting from a Welsh perspective is that of the figures at the heart of the scandal Sir Ronald Cohen is Gordon Brown’s equivalent of Blair’s Lord Levy.
Labour in figures in Wales are huge supporters of a Brown succession. Guilt by association therefore means that they not only favour his right wing policies, but also support his clear backing for these firms which are described as ultra capitalists.
In Wales we have already seen the Trade Unions dishing out letters to their members in support of Labour’s campaign. The irony is plain for all to see.
It’s the incoherence of the whole thing I don’t get. On the one hand you’ve got the Trade Unions throwing their formidable weight behind a Labour party in Wales that openly supports a London regime that is funded by the very sort of people the Trade Unions were set up to fight against.
Instead of peddling spin and smear for the Labour party, the Trade Union leadership in Wales should concentrate on protecting their members. My father was an Union shop steward all his working life and joined Plaid when Kinnock started the New Labour revolution and they turned their backs on working people. It’s about time the Trade Union membership rose in revolt against a docile Union Leadership in Wales whose only loyalty is to a party that has long forgotten the principles which founded it.
I have a lot of time for John McDonnell and other principled Labour MPs. The tragedy of the current make up of the Parliamentary Labour Party is that it is unlikely that John or Michael Meacher will get the necessary support to launch a leadership election against Brown.
Those of us who come from the South Wales valleys, from traditional socialist families, know that we are in our natural home with Plaid.
Tuesday, February 20, 2007
Guardian ICM Poll – Brown and New Labour in trouble
The Guardian ICM poll today is very bad news for Gordon Brown and the Liberal Democrats. If Brown was leader of Labour the Tories would have a 13% gap – their largest lead since 1992. Labours rating puts them at the same level as their result in the 1983 General Election under Michael Foot.
This is desperately bad news for Brown personally. His only hope is to call a snap election after assuming power, probably at the end of the first 100 days after a policy blitz, and hope the honeymoon period will be enough to carry him through. The added advantage of such a strategy would be that all Cameron has done so far is talk about ambiguous ideas – the Tories have no coherent policy platform in place ready to face a General Election, much in the same way that the only pledges they are coming up with here in Wales are, “we’ll look at this, re-start that, review those”.
Its very high risk stuff. Will Brown who has waited for so long for the top job risk it all on assuming the Premiership. My view is that if he waits ‘till 2009/2010 the Tories will steam roll, he has to go early if he is to have any chance.
Far be it from me to offer any advice to the Labour party, but Gordon Brown is a dead duck leader in waiting. They have to find someone new, fresh and dynamic. Someone able to renew the party and hope the Cameron effect in Middle England runs out of steam and that they are able to exploit the clear contradictions that exist within the Tory party. The problem for Labour is that their talent pool isn’t exactly deep.
The other interesting finding in the poll is that the Lib Dems are on 17%. They are clearly being squeezed and losing votes to the Tories. It seems that the coup of Charles Kennedy as been an unmitigated failure. If they had not purged him, he would be the most experienced leader of all the three London parties once Blair stood down.
Looks like a very busy year for us here in Wales. After the Assembly elections in May I wouldn’t bet against an Autumn General Election if Brown is PM.
This is desperately bad news for Brown personally. His only hope is to call a snap election after assuming power, probably at the end of the first 100 days after a policy blitz, and hope the honeymoon period will be enough to carry him through. The added advantage of such a strategy would be that all Cameron has done so far is talk about ambiguous ideas – the Tories have no coherent policy platform in place ready to face a General Election, much in the same way that the only pledges they are coming up with here in Wales are, “we’ll look at this, re-start that, review those”.
Its very high risk stuff. Will Brown who has waited for so long for the top job risk it all on assuming the Premiership. My view is that if he waits ‘till 2009/2010 the Tories will steam roll, he has to go early if he is to have any chance.
Far be it from me to offer any advice to the Labour party, but Gordon Brown is a dead duck leader in waiting. They have to find someone new, fresh and dynamic. Someone able to renew the party and hope the Cameron effect in Middle England runs out of steam and that they are able to exploit the clear contradictions that exist within the Tory party. The problem for Labour is that their talent pool isn’t exactly deep.
The other interesting finding in the poll is that the Lib Dems are on 17%. They are clearly being squeezed and losing votes to the Tories. It seems that the coup of Charles Kennedy as been an unmitigated failure. If they had not purged him, he would be the most experienced leader of all the three London parties once Blair stood down.
Looks like a very busy year for us here in Wales. After the Assembly elections in May I wouldn’t bet against an Autumn General Election if Brown is PM.
Thursday, February 15, 2007
Blair and Brown Spot the Difference
Big hitting Labour backbench MP Frank Field is the latest politician in his party’s ranks to voice disquiet at the seemingly trouble free succession of Gordon Brown.
Field confirms my assessment that a Brown Premiership will not herald any significant change from the current Administration – mostly because he has been the one behind most of New Labour’s domestic agenda. In the back of his mind is undoubted the way in which the Cameron strategy is built with Brown in mind.
He calls for a generation skip to combat Cameron and pleads with David Milliband to put his name forward.
The interesting point for us here in Wales is why are the First Minister and Brown’s dogs of war in Wales who led the failed Autumn coup against Blair, such in favour of a Brown succession? They tell us in Wales that New Labour is dead and that they are adopting a Welsh way, yet they openly support the Godfather of what they claim to abhor.
The key point is there is no coherence to the arguments of Labour in Wales. Perhaps I am missing something and would be eternally grateful if someone could provide an explanation.
Field confirms my assessment that a Brown Premiership will not herald any significant change from the current Administration – mostly because he has been the one behind most of New Labour’s domestic agenda. In the back of his mind is undoubted the way in which the Cameron strategy is built with Brown in mind.
He calls for a generation skip to combat Cameron and pleads with David Milliband to put his name forward.
The interesting point for us here in Wales is why are the First Minister and Brown’s dogs of war in Wales who led the failed Autumn coup against Blair, such in favour of a Brown succession? They tell us in Wales that New Labour is dead and that they are adopting a Welsh way, yet they openly support the Godfather of what they claim to abhor.
The key point is there is no coherence to the arguments of Labour in Wales. Perhaps I am missing something and would be eternally grateful if someone could provide an explanation.
Wednesday, February 14, 2007
Growing Unrest in the Tory Ranks
There’s a very interesting article in the latest edition of the House Magazine by former Tory Minister Edward Leigh. The article is a critique of the Cameron project. Leigh is concerned that as Cameron adopts Clinton’s triangulation process (subsequently followed by New Labour), voters are left without a real choice.
Leigh is a passionate traditional right of right winger, and clearly is far happier talking about privatisation and lower taxation than the Cameron focus on wellbeing and other what he views as ‘soft’ issues. He is particularly perplexed at why the main opposition in Westminster would want to fight the next General Election on exactly the same policy platform as the Government.
The Cameron strategy is quite simple. He is doing exactly what the New Labour project did to the Tories. He has positioned his party on the exact same ground in the hope that he will achieve power ‘cause people fancy a change in personalities rather than basing a strategy on a significant change of approach. The Cameron strategy is also built with Brown in mind - with no undistinguishable policies the electorate will base their choice on personality. Let’s face it in the charisma stakes Cameron is on a different political planet to poor old Gordon.
Leigh’s article gives an interesting insight to the frustrations of being a Westminster politician with values these days (not that I agree in any shape or form with his views). Since the battle of ideas in Westminster has come to an end – all three London parties now exist solely for the sake of achieving power.
Luckily in Wales we have another option to the failed consensus of the London parties. I am delighted that Plaid for the forthcoming Assembly Election is putting together a policy programme that challenges the current visionless WAG orthodoxy.
Leigh is a passionate traditional right of right winger, and clearly is far happier talking about privatisation and lower taxation than the Cameron focus on wellbeing and other what he views as ‘soft’ issues. He is particularly perplexed at why the main opposition in Westminster would want to fight the next General Election on exactly the same policy platform as the Government.
The Cameron strategy is quite simple. He is doing exactly what the New Labour project did to the Tories. He has positioned his party on the exact same ground in the hope that he will achieve power ‘cause people fancy a change in personalities rather than basing a strategy on a significant change of approach. The Cameron strategy is also built with Brown in mind - with no undistinguishable policies the electorate will base their choice on personality. Let’s face it in the charisma stakes Cameron is on a different political planet to poor old Gordon.
Leigh’s article gives an interesting insight to the frustrations of being a Westminster politician with values these days (not that I agree in any shape or form with his views). Since the battle of ideas in Westminster has come to an end – all three London parties now exist solely for the sake of achieving power.
Luckily in Wales we have another option to the failed consensus of the London parties. I am delighted that Plaid for the forthcoming Assembly Election is putting together a policy programme that challenges the current visionless WAG orthodoxy.
update - Neol Gallagher seems to have the same views as me on the Brown/Blair/Cameron consensus. Watch the newsnight interview.
Rhodri Agrees With Plaid
I nearly chocked on my cornflakes this morning when I read the Western Mail. In it we have the First Minister making the economic argument Plaid has been making over the years – ie that core UK fiscal and economic policy works against the interests of Wales.
I take back everything I wrote about him yesterday after his climate change gaffe. With his damning indictment of the South East of England centric obsession of Gordon Brown’s policies, it makes it ever harder to understand why he is supporting Brown for the Labour leadership.
I take back everything I wrote about him yesterday after his climate change gaffe. With his damning indictment of the South East of England centric obsession of Gordon Brown’s policies, it makes it ever harder to understand why he is supporting Brown for the Labour leadership.
Monday, February 12, 2007
How to Remove a Million Children from Poverty – The New Labour Way
Since achieving power, New Labour has always trumpeted the fight against child poverty. It symbolised their alleged determination to turn around the ravages of Thatcherism. But as always with New Labour, scratch under the surface of the rhetoric and not all is as it seems.
In 1999 the baseline year for which future targets were to be measured against, child poverty was measured on the basis of both BHC (before housing cost) and AHC (after housing cost).
The following table reproduces data on baseline, target and actual performance.
AHC (millions)
BHC (millions)
1998/99 (baseline)
4.1
3.1
Target 2004/05
3.1
2.3
Actual 2004/05
3.4
2.4
Credit where credit is due, progress has been made on both BHC and AHC measures, although both targets were missed – crucially by 200,000 more on the AHC measure.
In 2003 the Department for Work and Pensions proposed three new measures for calculating child poverty, which would be used for the 2011 target. All three new measures are calculated using a BHC analysis. At a stroke of a pen therefore over a million children have been removed from poverty based on the 2004/05 actual performance.
Child poverty campaigners argue that the BHC measure is far less accurate as it fails to take into account the costs of housing which significantly affects disposable income levels.
As this blog has eluded before, Gordon Brown and New Labour have a habit for changing the goalposts and cooking the books. Just goes to show that you can’t accept any New Labour pledge at face value.
In 1999 the baseline year for which future targets were to be measured against, child poverty was measured on the basis of both BHC (before housing cost) and AHC (after housing cost).
The following table reproduces data on baseline, target and actual performance.
AHC (millions)
BHC (millions)
1998/99 (baseline)
4.1
3.1
Target 2004/05
3.1
2.3
Actual 2004/05
3.4
2.4
Credit where credit is due, progress has been made on both BHC and AHC measures, although both targets were missed – crucially by 200,000 more on the AHC measure.
In 2003 the Department for Work and Pensions proposed three new measures for calculating child poverty, which would be used for the 2011 target. All three new measures are calculated using a BHC analysis. At a stroke of a pen therefore over a million children have been removed from poverty based on the 2004/05 actual performance.
Child poverty campaigners argue that the BHC measure is far less accurate as it fails to take into account the costs of housing which significantly affects disposable income levels.
As this blog has eluded before, Gordon Brown and New Labour have a habit for changing the goalposts and cooking the books. Just goes to show that you can’t accept any New Labour pledge at face value.
Monday, February 5, 2007
Rising Tide of Bankruptcy
The news that over 100,000 people are likely to be recorded as insolvent during 2006 provides a stark reminder of the core failure and excesses of New Labour. Leaving aside the fact of growing regional and individual wealth inequalities; a growing trade deficit; the loss of over a million manufacturing jobs; and the pensions crisis, Gordon Brown deserves firm criticism for an economic strategy built on sand.
Most economic commentators agree that Gordon Brown has been a lucky Chancellor, he has also been a very calculating one with a talent for cooking the books. We all know about the way in which the goalposts on the Golden rule (the government may only borrow to invest over the course of an economic cycle) has been shifted, but little attention has been given to how Brown has exacerbated borrowing to fuel consumer spending by a cold and calculating move which threatens to de-rail the economy in the long term.
I am referring to Browns decision to change the measure of inflation from a broad based formula to one that only concentrated on consumer prices (the consumer price index was adopted in 2003 by the MPC to calculate inflation). Consumer Prices have remained low due to cheap imports (further eroding our manufacturing base) meaning that the MPC has kept interest rates low at a time when other facets of the economy such as house prices and energy bills have been going through the roof.
As a result of hyperinflation in the housing market fuelled by low interest rates, people have been borrowing far in excess of what they can afford - caused mostly by a false feeling of wealth due to equity in their homes.
Little wonder with unsecured debt in the UK far above the £trillion mark that insolvencies have hit record levels - with the worse to come. The long term outlook isn't very good.
Most economic commentators agree that Gordon Brown has been a lucky Chancellor, he has also been a very calculating one with a talent for cooking the books. We all know about the way in which the goalposts on the Golden rule (the government may only borrow to invest over the course of an economic cycle) has been shifted, but little attention has been given to how Brown has exacerbated borrowing to fuel consumer spending by a cold and calculating move which threatens to de-rail the economy in the long term.
I am referring to Browns decision to change the measure of inflation from a broad based formula to one that only concentrated on consumer prices (the consumer price index was adopted in 2003 by the MPC to calculate inflation). Consumer Prices have remained low due to cheap imports (further eroding our manufacturing base) meaning that the MPC has kept interest rates low at a time when other facets of the economy such as house prices and energy bills have been going through the roof.
As a result of hyperinflation in the housing market fuelled by low interest rates, people have been borrowing far in excess of what they can afford - caused mostly by a false feeling of wealth due to equity in their homes.
Little wonder with unsecured debt in the UK far above the £trillion mark that insolvencies have hit record levels - with the worse to come. The long term outlook isn't very good.
No wonder Gordon is in such a rush to get to Number 10.
Thursday, February 1, 2007
Labour Duplicity
Yet again we witness the surreal ability of Labour politicians to distance themselves from their own party’s policies. I am referring to yesterday’s PCS strike over Gordon Browns savage public sector cuts. Splashed across the Western Mail today is Assembly Minister Sue Essex proclaiming total support for the strikers against her own party’s policies. When you are a branch of a London based party, its disingenuous to distance yourself from the policies of your paymasters.
The problem for Rhodri Morgan is that he has come out in support of an early Gordon Brown succession. He must be the only person who actually believes that good old Gordon is going to turn the clock back when he gets to 10 Downing Street and bring in a new socialist dawn. In case Rhodri hasn’t noticed, Gordon is the ideological Godfather of the whole New Labour domestic project. When his Ministers are crying crocodile tears over public sector job cuts, they are directly opposing Gordon Brown’s centralisation and privatisation agenda. So as WAG apparently now oppose Gordon’s job cuts plan, does that mean that they no longer support the succession? Clearly if there is such fundamental opposition to a core plank of Brownism (the Scottish version of Thatcherism) it would be insincere not to oppose his leadership bid.
At the end of the day there comes a point when politicians have to have some remnants of political coherence to their arguments. We are now led to believe that Labour AMs oppose the policies that Labour MPs based in Wales voted through in supporting the last Comprehensive Spending Review. They can’t have it both ways.
Will the real Labour in Wales please stand up?
The problem for Rhodri Morgan is that he has come out in support of an early Gordon Brown succession. He must be the only person who actually believes that good old Gordon is going to turn the clock back when he gets to 10 Downing Street and bring in a new socialist dawn. In case Rhodri hasn’t noticed, Gordon is the ideological Godfather of the whole New Labour domestic project. When his Ministers are crying crocodile tears over public sector job cuts, they are directly opposing Gordon Brown’s centralisation and privatisation agenda. So as WAG apparently now oppose Gordon’s job cuts plan, does that mean that they no longer support the succession? Clearly if there is such fundamental opposition to a core plank of Brownism (the Scottish version of Thatcherism) it would be insincere not to oppose his leadership bid.
At the end of the day there comes a point when politicians have to have some remnants of political coherence to their arguments. We are now led to believe that Labour AMs oppose the policies that Labour MPs based in Wales voted through in supporting the last Comprehensive Spending Review. They can’t have it both ways.
Will the real Labour in Wales please stand up?
Sunday, January 21, 2007
The inconsistencies of the Liberal Democrats
The poor Lib Dems in Scotland seem to be a mixed up bunch. On the one hand they have ruled out a refferendum on Scottish independence as a part of any coalition pact after the elections. Yet in the case of a Gordon Brown Premiership succession demand an immediate General Election..........so that the electorate can have a choice.
Is it me or would a clear SNP victory in May clearly show the will of the Scottish people to have a vote on the next step of their constitutional journey. The problem for Ming Campbell of course is that a Yes vote would mean the immediate end of his London Parliamentary career.
Having thought about it no wonder both himself and Gordon Brown are in such a state of panic.
Is it me or would a clear SNP victory in May clearly show the will of the Scottish people to have a vote on the next step of their constitutional journey. The problem for Ming Campbell of course is that a Yes vote would mean the immediate end of his London Parliamentary career.
Having thought about it no wonder both himself and Gordon Brown are in such a state of panic.
Friday, January 19, 2007
Welcome to Wales Tony
The Western Mail is reporting today that Labour strategists are going to send Tony Blair to Wales on a number of occasions during the Assembly campaign. Plaid Cymru are licking their lips at the haemorrhaging of Labour votes every time the Prime Minister makes an appearance.
The report does raise some serious questions about who is running the Labour show. First of all why is a so called ‘Welsh Labour’ campaign being organised in London? Why are Blair and Brown being used so much - undermining the whole ethos of so called ‘Welsh Labour’?
All this points to yet more evidence of the weakening position of Rhodri Morgan. Half of his AMs are already positioning themselves ready for his imminent retirement, and now it looks like London Labour have been called in to save Labour in Wales from impending meltdown.
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