From the soundings of Rhodri Morgan you would think that Labour had just secured a landslide victory. You wouldn’t think that Labour has just secured their worst result in Wales since the First World War.
Rhodri said during the campaign that he would go if Labour did badly. Well if such a poor share of the vote in the traditional Labour stronghold which is Wales isn’t a bad result what is?
Labour has got some desperate problems ahead. A dozen or so seats can be classified as marginals, they have no hope of making progress in 2011, and the inevitable civil war within the Labour group between the Welsh and Unionist wings is about to erupt.
Much like Blair of the last year, Rhodri if he continues as First Minister will be in office but not in power. Increasingly everyday rivals in the Labour group will be positioning themselves in pursuit of their personal and political objectives.
Rhodri might be putting on a brave face now, but his position is considerably weekend.
However, he has an opportunity to ensure a lasting legacy (the Rhodri the Great of future history books) by securing a proper Parliament for Wales (or at least the groundwork for such a body). Does he have the guts to deliver it is another question.
Political boffin, keen fisherman looking forward to retirement.
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