Labour-Tory Coalition Shock in ......East Dunbartonshire

The Herald reports that in an attempt to keep the SNP out of power the Tories and Labour have formed a coalition in East Dunbartonshire. The Council will be led by Labour's Rhondda Geekie, and Tory Bill Hendry will be Deputy Leader.

Judging on last nights Week in Week Out programme it is highly unlikely that we will see the same sort of arrangement in Cardiff Bay. But as they say, politics is a funny game....

update - according to Vaughaun Roderick's blog Rhodri Morgan has sent a three page letter to Ieuan Wyn Jones and Mike German and only a 10 line letter to Nick Bourne. I think we can all work that one out.

Brown for Britain!

If I was a London Labour strategist I'd use the coronation of Gordon Brown as the beginning of a 100 day war leading into the annual Labour Conference before using the new leaders speech to call a snap election.

Politically it has a lot of advantages. It enables the new PM to launch a short term policy blitz with plenty of electoral sweeteners; it will catch the Tories unprepared - there is no way that they will have produced a coherent programme of government by the Autumn; and Brown will invariably be on a honeymoon.

The one major problem for Labour is that the bank is empty - £20m in the red. They haven't the war chest to match the Tories at present.

If they went early I think Labour could win an overall majority. If Brown decides to serve another two/three years, the Tories will overtake Labour. The question is will there be enough Lib Dems left in Parliament to make up the numbers for a Lib - Lab arrangement.

We live in interesting times as they say.

Great Night for Plaid

I've finally got the will to blog again after the election count. What a fantastic result for Plaid, up three seats and we achieved the top of our ambitions. For the London parties it was a disaster. Labour with their worst result since the First World War, if that doesn't constitute a bad result then what does, were spared humiliation by reckless briefing up during the early stages of the count by the Tories and Lib Dems. When their expected gains didn't materialise, all the sudden it wasn't that bad for Labour.

The Tories are facing crisis, they have lost by far their biggest electoral asset in Glyn Davies - the only politician who could credibly carry off their triangulation attempts v Plaid. Instead they have some right wing nutcases like the new member for Clwyd West. I'm sure political opponents can''t wait to start debating against and getting him to open his mouth - The return of the nasty party is inevitable. Despite all the hype the Tory breakthrough failed to materialise.

The Lib Dems are in open warfare. What did they expect from an election strategy based on the ego of their leader and his wish for a ministerial car?

Plaid stopped the rot with some outstanding wins in Llanelli (Helen Mary's near 4,000 majority is testament to what Plaid can achieve in every part of Wales) and Aberconwy. Some near misses in Carms West, Clwyd West and Caerphilly.

Carms East as always produced an amazing result for Plaid - nearly 9,000 majority in a seat consisting of 2 industrial valleys. Looks like Adam Price will now have to get over the 10,000 majority mark in the next General Election - that's what I call healthy competition!

For me Neath was a great result, a 7% swing to reduce Labour's majority to less than 2,000. My prediction we won the election day voting is probably right.

Tories and the Welsh Way?

The Tories have launched their Assembly election manifesto promising a Welsh Way. Why did they therefore have to send in the cavalry from London in the shape of the boy Cameron?

The Great Tory Paradox

The Tories in the National Assembly and their crop of Welsh based MPs in Westminster seem to be treading very different paths. At Assembly level they are intent on ‘Welshyfying’ themselves – probably taking a note out of the New Labour handbook in terms of triangulation. The strategy is partly motivated to try and step on Plaid territory. The Tories over the years have been great re-inventors. From the day’s of Robert Peel and the Tamworth manifesto, they have made seismic shifts to stay relevant. Peels reform of the party was motivated by the 1832 Act which introduced some remnants of democracy to the UK. Disraeli followed suit with further changes in response to the two other electoral reform acts of the last part of the 19th century.

It’s an interesting strategy, but at the end of the day if the electorate want an all encompassing Wales first party, why vote for the Tories when you can vote for the real thing in Plaid. The clear danger for them is that they will only appeal to a small right wing element who can’t stomach Plaid’s determination to create a more egalitarian society.

The big problem that the leadership of the Tories face in the Assembly is that their Welsh based MPs are decidedly off message. David Cornock blogs that Stephen Crabb, MP for Preseli Penfro, does not support a St David’s day bank holiday. Their Westminster group if anything are rebelling against the Assembly group – intent on maintaining the nasty right wing, little Englander approach which we all know is the core of the Tories anyway.

What the Tories need to understand is that the fight for greater Welsh autonomy and the fight for rights for the language and culture of our nation are all intertwined with left leaning politics. The left has always been the driving force for change and those fighting for the rights of the minority.

With the Tories in the Assembly apparently jettisoning their raison d’etre – ie the party of unionism personified – you have to ask what’s the point of the Tories in Wales?

Labour Election Strategy Inconsistency

With New Labour in London in Terminal decline it’s hardly surprising that their apologists in Wales want to fight the forthcoming National Assembly elections on their record in Government since 2003 – although that is hardly anything to shout about.

It is perplexing therefore this week to see the Labour leadership in Wales launching two personal attacks on London based Tory politicians. Now don’t get me wrong I’ve got nothing against bashing the Tories, that’s why I have such an issue with a Labour party that has nicked all their policies.

Having said that if you are saying, as Labour in Wales are saying, that they want the National Assembly election to be fought on a Welsh basis, why spend the week leading up to your Spring Conference attacking the Tories in London and not showcasing your vision for Wales?

Yet again we witness a Labour party in Wales unable to adapt to the reality of devolution. It seems they have clearly run out of ideas and have decided to stick to what they know best – basing their politics on a Westminster model. ‘Operation straight choice’ is just an adaptation of ‘Operation Westminster’.

Wales deserves better that a governing party that clearly has no vision of how to develop our democracy in Wales.

Guardian ICM Poll – Brown and New Labour in trouble

The Guardian ICM poll today is very bad news for Gordon Brown and the Liberal Democrats. If Brown was leader of Labour the Tories would have a 13% gap – their largest lead since 1992. Labours rating puts them at the same level as their result in the 1983 General Election under Michael Foot.

This is desperately bad news for Brown personally. His only hope is to call a snap election after assuming power, probably at the end of the first 100 days after a policy blitz, and hope the honeymoon period will be enough to carry him through. The added advantage of such a strategy would be that all Cameron has done so far is talk about ambiguous ideas – the Tories have no coherent policy platform in place ready to face a General Election, much in the same way that the only pledges they are coming up with here in Wales are, “we’ll look at this, re-start that, review those”.

Its very high risk stuff. Will Brown who has waited for so long for the top job risk it all on assuming the Premiership. My view is that if he waits ‘till 2009/2010 the Tories will steam roll, he has to go early if he is to have any chance.

Far be it from me to offer any advice to the Labour party, but Gordon Brown is a dead duck leader in waiting. They have to find someone new, fresh and dynamic. Someone able to renew the party and hope the Cameron effect in Middle England runs out of steam and that they are able to exploit the clear contradictions that exist within the Tory party. The problem for Labour is that their talent pool isn’t exactly deep.

The other interesting finding in the poll is that the Lib Dems are on 17%. They are clearly being squeezed and losing votes to the Tories. It seems that the coup of Charles Kennedy as been an unmitigated failure. If they had not purged him, he would be the most experienced leader of all the three London parties once Blair stood down.

Looks like a very busy year for us here in Wales. After the Assembly elections in May I wouldn’t bet against an Autumn General Election if Brown is PM.

Growing Unrest in the Tory Ranks

There’s a very interesting article in the latest edition of the House Magazine by former Tory Minister Edward Leigh. The article is a critique of the Cameron project. Leigh is concerned that as Cameron adopts Clinton’s triangulation process (subsequently followed by New Labour), voters are left without a real choice.

Leigh is a passionate traditional right of right winger, and clearly is far happier talking about privatisation and lower taxation than the Cameron focus on wellbeing and other what he views as ‘soft’ issues. He is particularly perplexed at why the main opposition in Westminster would want to fight the next General Election on exactly the same policy platform as the Government.

The Cameron strategy is quite simple. He is doing exactly what the New Labour project did to the Tories. He has positioned his party on the exact same ground in the hope that he will achieve power ‘cause people fancy a change in personalities rather than basing a strategy on a significant change of approach. The Cameron strategy is also built with Brown in mind - with no undistinguishable policies the electorate will base their choice on personality. Let’s face it in the charisma stakes Cameron is on a different political planet to poor old Gordon.

Leigh’s article gives an interesting insight to the frustrations of being a Westminster politician with values these days (not that I agree in any shape or form with his views). Since the battle of ideas in Westminster has come to an end – all three London parties now exist solely for the sake of achieving power.

Luckily in Wales we have another option to the failed consensus of the London parties. I am delighted that Plaid for the forthcoming Assembly Election is putting together a policy programme that challenges the current visionless WAG orthodoxy.

update - Neol Gallagher seems to have the same views as me on the Brown/Blair/Cameron consensus. Watch the newsnight interview.

Do the Tories now Support a Local Income Tax?

Tory Assembly fiance spokesman in the Assembly, David Melding is quoted today in the Western Mail:

"there are serious questions about whether it is right to have such a high property tax that bears no relation to income."

As the party that first proposed abolishing council tax and introducing a progressive system based on ability to pay in the 1970s - we are delighted to seemingly have another one of the London parties on board.

Same Old Tories/Ceidwadwyr – Dim yn Newid

Gweler blog diddorol gan un o ser mawr dyfodol gwleidyddiaeth Cymru, Steffan Lewis.

Find an interesting blog by one of the future starts of Welsh politics, Steffan Lewis.

The Duplicity of the Cameron Project

David Cameron to be fair to him as employed the obvious political strategy to counter act New Labour since becoming leader of the Tories. Much of New Labour’s success has had far more to do with the idiocy of the manner in which the Conservatives have responded to New Labour’s existence rather than anything constructive New Labour has achieved.

By moving Labour to a centre right position – traditional Tory ground – the Tories did the fatal error of moving the party further to the right to create some clear blue water. Under Hague, IDS and Howard, Tory strategists played into the hands of New Labour by fighting on issues that were only relevant to the far right - ie their membership.

Cameron has turned things around by appearing to move the Tories back into the centre right position – creating a Tory/New Labour bottle neck meaning that ultimately after 10 years of New Labour middle England might well just vote for the Tories at the next General Election for change more than any clear divergence.

The problem Cameron has is that messaging is one thing, policy is another. There is no coherence currently. Whilst he passionately talks up the NHS the only detailed policy to come out of the Tories so far is to cut public expenditure by £20bn.

The new cuddly Tories Cameron is trying to push is further undermined by an extremely right wing article he gave to the Telegraph last week. In a statement which has gained very little coverage, Cameron said that he would restore the UK opt out of the EU social chapter. Nick Cohen of the Observer in his excellent article yesterday points out that the Cameron approach is not to secure legal rights for workers but hope employers do the right thing. As we have one of the most liberal labour laws in the world already – the prospect of even greater de-regulation, for the most vulnerable in particular, is quite frankly frightening.

The phrase ‘a wolf in sheep’s clothing comes to mind.’

The question is where do the Tories in Wales stand on this?

What Planet are the Tories Living on?

Tory Welsh Leader Cheryl Gillan is quoted as saying as the Independence issue reaches a frenzy, “We disagree with Plaid Cymru whose policies will take Wales down the road to economic ruin….”

I know Cheryl represents a constituency outside Wales, but has anybody told her Wales is the poorest part of the UK with a lower GVA than any of the other nations and regions. GVA in the European Objective 1/Convergance Funding areas is only 65% of the UK average. In hard figures this means that in most of Wales GVA per head is £11,126 whilst the UK average £17,677. Most worryingly, the trend is of a worsening situation.

To put things in context two hours down the road in London GVA is at 140% compared to the UK average – clearly portraying the wealth inequities caused by the prioritisation of the service sector of the South East of England by the London parties, and their clear failure to compose let alone implement a regional economic policy.

Put together with the worst health levels in the UK; the worst standard of housing; and poor transport links - the case for Welsh independence is compelling. The union as it stands is fast moving Wales down the road of economic and social ruin.

To coin a phrase from New Labour ‘things can only get better…’!